Critical community size
The critical community size (CCS) is the minimum size of a closed population within which a human-to-human, non-zoonotic pathogen can persist indefinitely.[1]
When the size of the closed population falls below the critical community size level, the low density of infected hosts causes extinction of the pathogen.[2] This epidemiologic phenomenon was first identified during measles outbreaks in the 1950s.[1]
The critical community size depends on:
- Speed of transmission
- How long until a person who has recovered remains immune
- Fatality rate
- Birth and death rate in the general population
See also
- Compartmental models in epidemiology – Type of mathematical model used for infectious diseases
- Epidemiology – Aspect of health and disease science
- Force of infection
- Mathematical modelling of infectious disease – Using mathematical models to understand infectious disease transmission
- Transmission risks and rates
References
- Bartlett MS The critical community size for measles in the United States. J R Stat Soc [Ser A]. 1960;123:37–44.
- Daniel T. Haydon. Identifying Reservoirs of Infection: A Conceptual and Practical Challenge. Emerg Infect Dis. 2002 December; 8(12): 1468–1473.
External links
- The Collection of Biostatistics Research Archive
- 'Epidemiology' – In: Philip S. Brachman, Medical Microbiology (fourth edition), US National Center for Biotechnology Information
- Monash Virtual Laboratory - Simulations of epidemic spread across a landscape
- People's Epidemiology Library
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